CARY, N.C. -

In late January, TrueCar.com was calling for used-vehicle sales north of 4 million units for the month, with a new-to-used ratio under 1:3.

This projection comes after CNW Research forecasted a much lower number: 2.32 million used sales for the month. The forecasted sum from CNW would be a 1.6-percent year-over-year decrease.

But as CNW president Art Spinella points out in his firm’s latest Retail Automotive Summary, using January as any kind of crystal ball can be tricky, if not altogether fruitless.

“January is hardly a good month to determine just how the used-car market will shake out over the year so not much can be read into the numbers,” Spinella said in the report.

And here’s another silver lining: 2014 should pan out to be a strong year in the used-car market for franchised and independent dealers, according to the 2014 Used Car Market Report from Manheim.

On the franchised side, the tailwinds pushing these dealers along in 2013 are expected to remain or even improve.

“Clearly, franchised dealers will benefit from the growing off-lease volumes as quality used-vehicle inventory will literally be driven to their door,” the report indicates. “And that’s not to mention that the majority of returning lessees will buy or lease another new vehicle from that dealer.”

And independents are likely to see some gains, as well.

Although their sales increase for 2013 (less than 2 percent, Manheim said, citing CNW) lagged the market, that shouldn’t take away from the fact that these dealers have shown “a very strong recovery from the recession,” Manheim said.

“For one, a drop in the dealer count means that fewer operators are sharing that modestly growing pie. More important, greater wholesale and retail finance opportunities have made that modestly growing unit volume very profitable,” the report reads.

“To be sure, high wholesale prices hurt gross margins and forced some dealers to alter either their inventory or customer profile; but these were changes that most dealers made smoothly. This means that independent dealers are well-positioned for 2014, when wholesale supplies are expected to flow more normally and the upward pressure on wholesale prices is relieved,” it continued. “In particular, independent dealers should experience larger, and better, inventory acquisition possibilities from lenders selling repossessions.”