ATLANTA -

Wholesale vehicle prices have peaked and it will likely be “several years” before they return to the record levels seen in recent months.

That’s according to analysis around Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which reached an all-time high of 203 in May, but fell to 200.4 in June.

That ended a four-month string of record highs in the index, a streak that included the first time the index had reached 200.

Still, despite a slowdown from May, the index was up 34.3% from June 2020.

Adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality, wholesale values fell 1.3% sequentially in June.

“After several months of record highs, all indicators now show that wholesale used vehicle prices peaked in early June and have started to decline,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in a news release.

Smoke noted that, “we don’t anticipate seeing numbers in the 200s again for likely several years. Based on our data, it’s clear that supply and demand are more in balance and may be tilting slightly to favor buyers.

“There are still supply constraints and will be for some time, but we anticipate that substantially inflated used vehicle values will erode by 9% between now and the end of 2021,” he said.

On the supply side, there was 20 days of wholesale supply at the end of June, compared to the normal supply level of 23. 

Cox anticipates slight improvement, but that it will be 2024 before supply is back to where it was in 2019.

On the retail side, June ended with 41 days supply, compared to the normal level of 44. 

Looking at Manheim Market Report prices, those showed week-over-week gains in the first half of June and then slowed quickly.

Even though wholesale prices dipped, Cox Automotive found that on the retail side of the market, prices remained on the uptick. The rate of gains, however, has slowed are should hit an apex in July, Cox said.

Going back to year-over-year wholesale price data for June, the index report shows that in addition to the 34.3% overall hike in prices from June 2020, pickups showed 49.5% growth from a year ago.

Next up were vans (up 33.4%), SUVs/CUVs (up 32.5%), midsize cars (up 26.2%), compact cars (up 24.3%) and luxury cars (up 24%).

Rental risk unit prices were up 14% year-over-year and 2% month-over-month.