Beggs: Sandy Likely Flooded More Cars Than Katrina

Black Book’s Ricky Beggs said Superstorm Sandy will have an even bigger industry impact than Hurricane Katrina did seven years ago.
Beggs on Monday indicated the number of flooded vehicles left by Sandy is expected to greatly exceed the 640,000 units destroyed during Katrina in 2005.
Beggs and the team at Black Book have been in full Sandy analysis mode for the past week, conducting nearly 20 interviews with industry-related outlets including Auto Remarketing as well as national media who want to know what kind of impact the recent event is going to leave on both the used- and new-vehicle industries.
Beggs said during his latest video analysis, “Beggs on the Used Car Market” that the typical fourth-quarter price softening dealers are used to seeing this time of year likely “should come to a halt and probably get a positive bump in values.
“It should take a few weeks to see this and the reach out from the physically damaged areas could go to over half of the geographical country,” he continued. “With online auction listings, finding needed inventory is surely possible even in this existing level of tight used supplies. We will be on the lanes and analyzing loads of data feeds to report if and when any trend appears.”
With so many vehicles likely damaged, Beggs acknowledged the industry will be focused on making sure the flooded and salvage vehicles get removed from the market.
“Nobody within the industry wants to be a part of a future problem as a result of flood damage,” he said. “The history reporting service providers have the opportunity to greatly assist the industry in this monitoring.
“You can click on this link to see how Black Book supported the industry in telling Fox News how the industry is driven to monitor and eliminate the bad vehicles from staying in the market,” Beggs continued.
Beggs touched on the impact on the financing side of the equation Sandy is likely to have.
“From auto lenders who are so key in supporting solid sales of new and used, funding is available and at some of the best interest rates ever,” Beggs said. “The replacement vehicle loans just ahead may offer lower monthly payments for a new or better condition replacement vehicle.”
Despite all the Sandy chatter, Black Book kept track of price movements a week ago and found that cars fared better than trucks in terms of changes.
The average price change for cars came in at a decline of $65, but eight of the 10 segments managed a dip less than the average. The only two car segments that dropped more than the average were prestige sporty cars (down $151) and entry sporty cars (down $76).
Meanwhile, editors noticed that truck prices decline by an average of $73 last week, the largest single-week decrease since the close of July.
After recapping last week’s price movements, Beggs returned to what he and the Black Book team tried to project in terms of Sandy ramifications.
“Another question Black Book was asked quite often this past week related to what vehicles or segments will feel the most impact in demand and wholesale price,” Beggs said. “Even though the 14 truck segments overall average change this past week was larger than the cars for the first time over the past 14 weeks, we don’t expect that to be the case within the next month.
“More specifically, the market demand for full-size pickups and full-size cargo vans should exceed the remainder of the market due to existing market volumes of these type vehicles and the need within the construction and service industries with rebuilding the many damaged and totally destroyed homes and businesses,” Beggs continued.
“Another market we expect to show an uptick in demand and used wholesale values will be the luxury type units, both cars and utility models,” he went on to say. “With leases being so high a penetration of total new sales in the area directly hit the hardest, these luxury manufacturers also represent higher overall lease penetration.
“As I have already mentioned, it will take at least a week or so before any refilling of the damaged inventories will occur,” Beggs added. “The actual results from this past week show the current fall seasonal decline, combined with the traditional end of the month less aggressive bidding on the lanes.”
While industry discussion took much of Black Book’s attention, Beggs emphasized how important it is to keep in mind the people affected by the storm.
“When we look at the physical damage, the future effects on the automotive industry is a very small piece of the recovery and is bound to take an extended period of time,” Beggs said. “But foremost is our concern for the citizens and companies of the hard hit areas. If you are more fortunate than those personally affected by Sandy, any donation to the American Red Cross or any relief agency will be greatly appreciated.”
Furthermore, Beggs also made a special mention of an individual who he called “a real influencer and leader within the remarketing industry.” As previously reported by Auto Remarketing, Matt Marks, the executive director of the International Automotive Remarketers Alliance, passed away.
“What a great leader and man of integrity this industry has lost. Our thoughts and prayers go out to his family,” Beggs said.
Beggs wrapped up his latest commentary by sharing what else is coming down the pipeline from Black Book.
“As the calendar for 2012 nears its completion, the Black Book editors are getting enough market driven data to publish current used values on over 30 newer models,” Beggs said. “Are you a mobile, data or other electronic subscriber to the Black Book daily values? If so, you will also know which 2013 model now has the market driven values assigned.
“We will be in close contact with auction owners and managers, dealers and remarketers throughout the week in order to report the most current market trends and values,” he continued. We welcome and encourage your comments and insights into the market. Have a great week and we’ll see you on the auction lanes.”
Beggs’ video can be viewed below.