Going counter to the recent trajectory seen by Black Book, Cox Automotive is watching wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) moving higher.

That’s at least looking at the first 15 days of June compared to May.

Analysts reported on Wednesday that the mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 1.7% to 208.7, showing a rise of 6.5% from the full month of June 2024.

Cox Automotive explained that the weaker seasonal adjustment drove the higher result for the index, following stronger adjustments in May.

However, analysts pointed out the non-adjusted price change in the first half of June decreased by 0.7% compared to May, and the unadjusted price is 5.6% higher year over year.

Cox Automotive went on to note that the average move for the full month of June is a decline of 0.5 percentage points for non-adjusted values, indicating that the depreciation observed so far in June is slightly stronger than normally seen for the full month.

“While the wholesale market experienced some volatility in April and May, trends have started to calm down and are looking more normal early in June,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive.

“In the first two weeks of June, we’ve seen fairly normal depreciation trends on a weekly basis, as used retail sales remain steady,” Robb continued. “With heightened activity in April and May, the seasonal adjustments to the index were a bit stronger. Now that they are starting to wane, this has caused the overall index to rise so far in June.

“Wholesale supply continues to be relatively tight, and we’ve seen healthy sales conversion in recent weeks, suggesting market demand will be steady as we move into summer,” he added.

Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data, Cox Automotive said wholesale supply ended May at an estimated 25 days, up one day from the end of April and down one day compared to May 2024.

As of June 15, wholesale supply remained at 25 days, unchanged from the end of May, and was 6% or two days lower versus last year, according to Cox Automotive tracking.

Turning back to the discussion of prices, Cox Automotive spotted some data that fell near what Black Book is seeing, too.

Over the last two weeks, the Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices in the Three-Year-Old Index decreased by an aggregate of 0.4%, which analysts said aligns with the seasonally normal decline.

Analysts noted the long-term average decrease for 3-year-old values in the first two weeks of June is 0.4%.

Over the first 15 days of June, MMR Retention — the average difference in price relative to current MMR — averaged 99.2%, a rise of 0.1 percentage points, or one-tenth of a point, from late May, according to Cox Automotive.

That’s “indicating that market prices remained slightly lower than valuation models early in June,” analysts said in their update.

Cox Automotive said MMR retention is approximately 1 percentage point higher compared to the first half of June 2024.

Analysts added the average daily sales conversion rate of 58.4% in the first half of the month was 2 points higher than the 56.4% recorded last year, “indicating healthy demand levels in wholesale markets.”

Cox Automotive also touched on what’s happening the lanes by vehicle segment, noticing that all major market segments saw positive year-over-year results for seasonally adjusted prices in the first half of June.

Compared to the industry’s year-over-year increase of 6.5%, analysts found that the luxury segment outperformed the market, rising by 8.8%.

Rising less than the industry, SUVs were higher by 6.4%, with trucks showing gains of 3.9% and mid-size cars up by 3.3%, according to Cox Automotive data.

Analysts indicated the compact car segment rose the least for the month, increasing by just 0.3% against the same time last year.

“All segments were higher compared with the results at the end of May,” Cox Automotive said.

Analysts determined the overall industry increased by 1.7% compared to the prior month, and trucks were up even more, rising by 2.1% so far in June.

Showing lower gains than the industry, Cox Automotive said both compact cars and SUVs increased by 1.5% against May, while mid-size cars rose by 1.3%.

The luxury segment showed the smallest increase, higher by 1.2% over the period, according to the analysis.

Rounding out the update, Cox Automotive mentioned electric vehicles have generated higher wholes prices over the last couple of months, with a notable 11.1% increase in early June compared to somewhat depressed values in the same period last year.

Prices in the non-EV segment were also higher, rising by 6.2% over the period.

“Against May values, EVs increased by 0.7% in the first half of June, while non-EVs showed stronger gains and were up 2% in the month,” analysts said.