CARY, N.C. -

Need proof the off-lease volume surge may have already arrived? Ford Credit’s lease return volume in the first quarter was more than double the total from a year ago, according to metrics from Ford’s 2014 first quarter fixed income presentation that Manheim Consulting chief economist Tom Webb shared on his blog.

It was also significantly stronger than the numbers in the fourth quarter, when 34,000 units came off lease.

Ford Credit’s Q1 lease return volume was at 60,000 units, compared to 26,000 in the same period of 2013.  In fact, this year’s first-quarter sum was larger than the first-half sum from last year (53,000 units).

The majority of Ford Credit’s lease return volume from this most recent period, according to the data, were from 24-month leases (40,000 units). There were 12,000 from 36-month contracts and 8,000 from 39-month or other-term contracts.

These numbers and those of Ford Credit’s peers likely played a role in the wholesale volume gains noticed in the first quarter by the National Auto Auction Association.

A post to the association’s Twitter account on Monday cited some data from NAAA economist Ira Silver that indicated auction volume climbed 4.4 percent in Q1.  This resulted from a 3.0-percent volume hike in January, followed by a 3.6-percent increase in February and 6.8-percent growth last month, according to the data attributed to Silver.

In its latest issue of Guidelines, NADA Used Car Guide addressed similar Q1 trends in its look at AuctionNet volume. NADA indicated that the number of AuctionNet transactions for vehicles 8 years old or younger increased 1.5 percent year-over-year in the first quarter.

Although there was a large decline in 1-year-old vehicle volume, the report indicated, AuctionNet volume for 2- to 4-year-old vehicles jumped an average of 25 percent — and this group, of course, is primarily the off-lease crowd.  The decline in volume for 5- to 7-year-old vehicles was just under 13 percent, NADA indicated.

So, what does the future hold for wholesale volumes, particularly the off-lease variety? One place to look is the leasing activity of General Motors Financial.

As reported Monday by SubPrime Auto Finance News, a sister publication to Auto Remarketing, GM Financial indicated operating lease originations of GM vehicles totaled $773 million, up from $650 million sequentially and from $620 million year-over-year.

The net amount of leased vehicles in GM Financial’s portfolio totaled $3.7 billion as of March 31.

“Lease originations, this is a bright spot for us,” GM Financial president and chief executive officer Dan Berce said. “We particularly had a good quarter in Canada this quarter originating a little more that $250 million of new leases. That was primarily because of outstandingly lease support from GM in Canada and our introduction of a biweekly pay option, which has been received by the market quite well.”