Why auction prices are stabilizing

Prices in the lanes are holding stable as dealers buy up inventory in preparation for tax refunds to start pouring into potential customers’ bank accounts.
Price depreciation at auction last week was very slight, according to the latest Black Book Market Insights report.
Car prices dropped by just 0.19 percent or $19, according to Black Book data, while trucks took a slight hit of 0.14 percent of $21.
“Nearly all segments exhibited stability in values and showing signs of continued buying ahead of tax refund season,” Anil Goyal, senior vice president of automotive valuation and analytics at Black Book, said in the analysis.
Comment from the lanes echoed that sentiment. Black Book editors overhear an auction attendee from Tennessee note, “Good tax sale today. Cars for less than $10,000 sold really well,” while a buyer form California said, “Strong sale with strong bidding today both on the floor and online.”
Prices have begun stabilizing over recent weeks, but the tides are really beginning to show signs of early spring selling season as February progresses.
The car segments average price drop of 0.19 percent was much lower than the average depreciation rate of 0.43 percent seen over the previous six weeks.
And for trucks, the 0.14-percent decline was a more positive showing than the 0.38-percent average decline seen over the previous two months.
Among the cars, the premium sporty car segment saw the biggest drop, in line with trends normally seen in the dead of winter, with rates dropping by 0.84 percent or $272. The subcompact car, compact car, midsize car and full-size cars segments “moved very little,” according to Black Book editors.
The subcompact segment, which saw significant depreciation over 2015 due in part to low gas prices, is now stabilizing a bit.
Among the trucks, the midsize crossover/SUV, full-size pickup and full-size luxury crossover/SUV segments saw the largest drops, of 0.28 percent, 0.25 percent and 0.22 percent, respectively.
The small pickup segment was the best performer out of the trucks, with prices rising by 0.19 percent or $12.
Used-car prices remain strong overall early in the year, but there is a caveat.
“In comparison to last year’s trends, the prices show a relatively higher depreciation of -2.3 percent in 2016 versus -1.5 percent in 2015 in the first six weeks of the year,” the report stated.
And as supply continues to expand, many analysts expects that trend to continue to put downward pressure on used prices.
In fact, the industry isn’t expected to see the usual boom in price strength during tax season, though rates are expected to remain elevated for the spring selling season.
“Coinciding with the steady receipt of tax refund checks, used vehicle prices gradually improve over a given first quarter before tapering off as spring progresses,” Jonathan Banks, executive automotive analyst at NADA Used Car Guide, said in the January Guidelines report. “While we expect a similar pattern to play out over the next few months, we believe higher supply will dampen this year’s Q1 rise.”